Ravens at Dolphins predictions: Point spread, total, player props, trends for ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins will get Week 10 — and the second half of the regular season — started when these two AFC clubs square off at Hard Rock Stadium for “Thursday Night Football.” The Ravens are coming off a thrilling overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings that brought them to 6-2 on the season. Meanwhile, Miami’s 2021 campaign hasn’t gone as many anticipated it would coming into the year as they sit at 2-7. They currently have questions at quarterback with Tua Tagovailoa dealing with an injury to his finger in his throwing hand. If he is unable to go, Jacoby Brissett would get the starting nod and look for his second-consecutive win after defeating the Texans in Week 9. 

In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at all the different betting angles that this primetime game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll take a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week and, of course, give you some of our favorite picks leading into “Thursday Night Football.”

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 11 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
TV: FOX/NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Ravens -7.5, O/U 46.5

Line movement

The Ravens initially opened as a 7-point favorite over Miami, but that number has since bumped over the touchdown threshold to 7.5 with the status under center for the Dolphins in question. 

The pick: Ravens -7.5. I have a hard time imagining the Dolphins being able to keep up with the Ravens offense no matter who is under center. Coming into Week 10, Baltimore is averaging 6.1 yards per play, which is tied for the third-highest mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Dolphins sit dead-last in the league in that category, averaging just 4.7 yards per play. While Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been particularly strong, I don’t believe Miami has the offensive ceiling to be able to take advantage and keep this within a touchdown. The Ravens have also played well Thursdays, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. 

Key trend: Dolphins are 1-3 ATS as an underdog or pick.

Over/Under total

The total for this game has taken a bit of a free-fall after sitting at 48 on Sunday. Since then, it has dropped all the way to 46.5 in the lead up to this head-to-head. 

The pick: Over 46.5. I don’t love the total in this game, but if I had to lean in a direction it would be the over, simply banking on the Ravens offense getting me the bulk of the way there. While I may not have much faith in the Dolphins offense, Baltimore is allowing 6.3 yards per play to opposing teams this season, which is tied with the Chiefs for the most in the NFL. 

Key trend: Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last six games vs. teams with a winning record. 

• Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -140, Under +110)
• Passing yards: 235.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
• Rushing yards: 64.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Rushing attempts: 9.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
• Passing attempts: 27.5 (Over -125, Under-105)
• Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Completions: 18.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105, Under -135)

There is an interesting narrative that’s worth pointing out with Jackson coming into Thursday night. He’s from Pompano Beach, Florida, which is only a 35-minute drive away from Hard Rock Stadium. The last time he played in front of his hometown against the Dolphins in Hard Rock Stadium, he balled out, throwing for 324 yards, five touchdowns with a perfect passer rating back in Week 1 of 2019. While it’s unlikely he matches those ridiculous numbers, he could be hyped up to play in front of friends and family once again. That’s why I’m leaning over on his passing yards prop of 235.5 (-130). He’s only failed to go over that total just twice this season. I also like the over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns prop. 

Player props to consider

Mark Andrews total receiving yards: Over 50.5 (-115). Andrews is getting steady volume (7.6 targets per game) in the Ravens’ passing attack and has a nice matchup against Miami. This season, the Dolphins are surrendering 65 yards per game to opposing tight ends. 

Mark Andrews anytime touchdowns (+129). Doubling down on this strong matchup and betting that Andrews finds the end zone. 

Marquise Brown total receptions: Over 4.5 (+130). Lamar Jackson has thrown in Browns’s direction 26 times over the last two weeks and the receiver has gone over this prop in five games this year. The Hollywood, Florida, native will certainly want to show out in front of his hometown Thursday, so he could be in for a big game.